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"It's not surprising that when rates climb above 7 percent, fewer people buy homes because fewer people can afford them". - Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research, Redfin -
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"With fixed rates much higher, more borrowers opted for ARMs, with the ARM share reaching 9.8%, as rates for 5/1 ARMs were more than a percentage point lower than those for fixed rate loans," - Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the MBA.
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"Margin debt is the highest it has ever been. There's a lot of margin debt you don't see because it's not called margin debt. It's called other things. It's that kind of leverage, some hidden, some public." - JAMIE DIMON -
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"The Fed changed its academic framework and its operational framework and it led to higher prices, which did more harm to the least well off among us than any policy that I could have imagined." - KEVIN WARSH, FED CHIEF -
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"It's the only thing that lasts!" - Ted Turner once said he didn't like to buy anything except land. He owned around 2 million acres, mostly dedicated to conservation
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"Housing affordability is going to be the biggest issue going forward". - Steven Ross
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"The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation, not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation," - Fed Chair Jerome Powell
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"We want homes for people, not for corporations. We are protecting the American dream of ownership by stopping Wall Street from competing with Main Street homebuyers"
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"Injections of inventory aren't likely to come from either existing owners or builders; buyers should be prepared for bidding wars and broken hearts".
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"In 2026, American home design trends are expected to emphasize wellness features, nostalgic styles, and sustainability. Practical features such as home offices and fenced yards continue to be top buyer preferences." - AXIOS -
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"Overpriced homes that call for reductions now take on average 64 days longer to sell than those without them, the biggest gap since 2015. Properties sitting on portals show the reductions, and that can be off putting to buyers". - FINANCIAL TIMES -
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"Our new Buyer Demand function gives our real estate professionals the ability to walk into a listing appointment with real-time visibility into serious buyers, allowing home sellers to see exactly how much interest exists for their home at specific price points". - Robert Refkin, Compass CEO & Founder
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"Low and stable inflation is essential to create stable, predictable economic conditions that benefit the housing market over the medium to longer term." - Susan Collins, Boston Fed
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"With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance." - Jerome Powell
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"Let us never negotiate out of fear, but let us never fear to negotiate" John F. Kennedy
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"The earlier you start advertising a movie, the earlier you start advertising a new building company, the more energ y and enthusiasm you build. That way, when you come to market, you've got maximum market exposure." -Patrick Barber, a regional president for Compass about Private Exclusives
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"These two homes have perfectly reciprocal climates, meaning that if it's the wrong time of year to visit one, it;s the right time of year at the other." - Steven Harris
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"If you're making a big life decision and you want to wait till your life is perfect, I would say, don't wait. At least, my life has never been perfect." - Kate Gallege, Phoenix, AZ
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"Enjoyment per square foot matters as much as price per square foot, you only live once, and your home is indeed your castle and canvas of your life". Leonard Steinberg, COMPASS
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"Most have left their kitchen tables and are back at the office." - Steve Roth - Vornado
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"If what you're hoping or wishing for is an interest rate at 4%, or housing prices to drop 20%, I personally don't think either one of those things is remotely likely in the near term," - Lee Baker (CNBC)
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"Home insurance in areas hit by repetitive disasters is going to be the number one housing affordability issue over the next 4 years. And possibly going into the midterms. More so than interest rates," - Mark Cuban (CNBC)
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"If I knew where I was going to want to live the next five or 10 years, I would buy a home and I'd finance it with a 30-year mortgage and it's a terrific deal. If you're handy, consider buying a couple of homes." - Warren Buffet
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"Everybody who was going to come here, all came at once and then we had a massive boom and it was extraordinary. And that's not sustainable, because we borrowed so much demand from the future, so many people that were going to come in next year, they came 2 years ago. So you're not going to have that same level of growth." - Jeff Greene
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"This is generational opportunity to invest in real estate" - Scott Rexler (RXR)
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"The time has come for policy to adjust" - Fed Chief Jerome Powell
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"While inflation is declining, it is not at a low enough level to convince the Fed that lowering rates is necessary. The U.S. continues to have a strong economy despite so many people thinking there will be a recession, which is a reason to keep rates steady." says Michael Collins. founder of WinCop Financial.
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"There is really no reason to leave the house"
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"In an economy where people are a little unsure what the future holds, people tend to be more value orinted." Ken Good, JR
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"A lot of what's going on with inflation today can be linked very closely with the level of interest rates," Jack Manley, executive director at J.P. Morgan Asset Management
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"I want to provide an annual tax credit that will give Americans $400 a month for the next two years as mortgage rates come down to put toward their mortgages when they buy their first home or trade up for a little more space." - President Joe Biden
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"The Federal Reserve can start to cut rates come this summer, and we will see unemployment touch up a little bit. But the overall economy looks pretty damn good right now," - Ken Griffin, Citadel
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"The Fed is going to hit its target, and investors know that that means, rate cuts. We'll soon not be talking about a soft landing-we'll be talking about a re-acceleration." - Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US
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"When they say, 'It's location, location, location' in real estate. I say, 'No, it's timing, timing, timing'" - Jorge Perez, RELATED GROUP
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"Rate hikes are like tequila shots: one never knows when one's had enough until one's had too much" -Louis Vincent Gave, Gavekal Research
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"The 5 D's continue to keep the market moving, Diapers, Diplomas, Diamonds, Divorce and Death" -Robert Refkin, COMPASS
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"The US housing sector is on the upswing again, even with mortgage rates at multi-decade highs. Although much has been attributed to shortages of existing properties and mortgage lock-in effects, we think strong demand is a symptom of the aging population."
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I think people forget that the vast majority of sellers are also trying to buy at the same time. When conditions are tough for buyers, it can hold back selling inventory as well.
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This time of year, buyers start to get nervous, will anything else come on. We often experience buyers feeling like they simply cannot find their dream home. They often feel they are left picking from what they describe as a selection of homes that compromise on much of their wish list.
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This month we will take you through the minds of both buyers and sellers. For buyers, the big story is how to make your offer competitive. Do you waive your mortgage, appraisal, and inspection contingency? How high is high enough? Do we look at raw data, go with gut instinct or just go as high as we can afford? For sellers, do we just list our house to capitalize on the market and make our money get out and then rent till we figure it out? Whet is our pricing strategy? Price low, force o bidding war to create o multiple offer situation to get buyers to bid up?
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"In terms of real estate, everyone needs a house to live in and rent certainly is not getting any cheaper. If there is a payment you can afford, buy the home. There will be an opportunity to refinance sometime in the future as interest rates are like a never-ending rollercoaster: They go up and they come back down." - Carly Wimer. VP of mortgage lending at Guaranteed Rate
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Today we have a housing imbalance, We have more people than houses. The millennial generation is the biggest generation since the baby boomers; and they are reaching household formation years. There is 12.6% household formation growth with only 8% housing growth. Essentially, we can't keep up. People over 60 used to sell their house and recycle it back to the younger generation, but that has slowed.
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The local Westchester Housing market is already very active in 2023. There is very little inventory and when those homes come on, if priced right {meaning not pricing from Spring of 2022, but a nice blend of the last few years) they ore receiving multiple offers, going to contract within a few days and getting over asking.
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The end of a year and the dawn of a new one. In this roller coaster world where the highs and lows seem to become more extreme each day, and the only certainty we speak to is the certainty of change. Markets rise and fall. They always have and always will. They also almost always recover. And mostly they surpass their prior high's. The only unknown about recovery is the timing.
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Will the Fed’s rate hikes be the Grinch this year? Will 2023 be the termed the The Great Affordability Crisis? The speed of change matters and right now we are experiencing one of those moments with historically rapid and large interest rate hikes, historically rapid declines in sales volume, historically rapid declines in savings and rise in debt, and notable shifts in spending and investing patterns. We are in the midst of what we call a MACK TRUCK MOMENT.
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I recently spent a few days in Atlanta with thousands of COMPASS agents all around the country, learning about their markets. In almost all the markets, the agents agreed that we are in the midst of a massive market rebalancing. This re-balancing market has left some sellers in areas angry that they missed the peak of the selling frenzy when mortgage interest rates were half of where they are right now. Some sellers have not acknowledged the change in market and are pricing their homes to comps of early 2022. Those homes are just acquiring days on market; simply put, if the price isn’t compelling, it isn’t selling.
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Everything has a season followed by another season that has its own, unique characteristics while retaining pretty much 90% of the prior seasons. While this market re-balances and changes, a huge chunk of it remains the same or very similar. The pent-up demand surge of the past two years is subsiding to allow markets to breathe. Growth and pull back are the natural forces of all markets. We are at the tail end of an extreme market, rapidly adjusting to new realities.
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Housing is an important indicator of economic activity for several reasons: it bears a direct relationship to the consumer’s ability and willingness to borrow and spend. A slowdown in housing at this point doesn’t necessarily mean a big wave of mortgage delinquencies or foreclosures are coming, but it does indicate consumers are likely exiting the market. That could be due to decreased affordability (increasing mortgage rates amid rising home prices), or because consumers are worried about their economic prospects in the near-to-medium term or both.
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While we experience some of the negatives of the current higher interest rates environment, maybe we are also witnessing one of the more important recoveries in the housing markets: the recovery of some inventory levels. The extreme imbalances in many areas around the country and the world between supply and demand have been one of the key drivers of inflation. In many parts, we have seen unrealistic, irrationally exuberant double-digit price escalations in a very short period of time. This is unsustainable.
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There has been a meaningful slowdown in buyer demand. We are experiencing a reset for a more balanced market. In a balanced market; buyers tend to place reasonable offers on homes and sellers tend to accept them. Homes remain on the market for a moderate amount of time (typically 4-6 months) neither lagging for months nor getting snapped up in mere hours or days.
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The market has shifted from irrational to more rational. The slowdown means the Fed's rate hikes are working, cooling demand in an overheated market. JP Morgan reported inflation is now peaking and expects it to decelerate through the rest of 2022. The risk is that Fed policy is too aggressive in aiding that along, resulting in economic growth slowing too abruptly and tipping the economy into a recession (when there is less demand and then the prices for everything will come down). If we follow historic trends, real estate continues to be a good hedge against inflation as property values over time stay on a steady upward curve.
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This is the strongest real estate market we have ever seen. Homes are going on and off the market in a few days with multiple offers. Homes are getting 50 showings and 25 offers within 24-72 hours of going on the market. Listing agents are pricing homes lower with the expectation of a bidding war. Bidding wars are escalating prices to all time highs.
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Will it ever get warm. For some reason this year, it feels it is taking forever to finally feel like Spring. In the housing market, what typically is the busiest buying season “spring market” started in January and is not showing signs yet of cooling off.
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When I think of this past month 2 things jump out at me. The pace of the market and interest rates are finally on the rise. The speed at which deals are closing is at rate I have never seen. Most homes are going live to contract status within a week. This is giving agents very little time to do their due diligence to be able to check municipals. The landscape is so competitive that buyers are doing anything to win the bid; waiving inspections, paying cash, removing financing contingencies, closing late, closing early and giving shutdown offer prices hundreds over ask. The rates are climbing quicker than expected and buyers are now able to afford less. This will have a trickle-down effect on pricing, but for this month we have not felt that slow down just yet.
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The housing market is on fire. In fact, it hasn't been this strong since the pre-Global Financial Crisis period. Inventory levels are at all-time lows and buyer demand is accelerating. Rising interest rates are creating buyer panic and fueling bidding wars. We have seen bidding wars on excess of 20% over ask with no financing contingencies to win bids. Buyers are not waiting for the weekend to see homes anymore, they visit on the listing date. They make sizable offers immediately in an effort to prevent a bidding war. Buyers are getting creative with their bids.
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2021 the year that inflation reared its ugly head. Nearly everything in 2021 cost more than 2020, not just real estate. While supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages and fiscal stimulus have all been blamed for the rise in short-term inflation, another long-term force is de-globalization. As for real estate, housing bulls on Wall Street argue that this is an upturn that could last for a decade.
Podcasts
Podcasts
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How to win a bidding war!
Podcasts
Great insight on things sellers can’t do to be more successful in the sale of their home.
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Exclusive tips all buyers should know when buying a home in the “burbs".
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Our six seasoned agents deliver exceptional service as strong negotiators and relatable advisors. They are experts in their respective local communities where they are working and raising their own families.
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